Is the West in decline

[Pegasus]

A positive for the West is Uke's are actively fighting for a democratic future .

 

[Johnny D]

There's just a ton going on right now in the US that shows "both sides" are more interested in authoritarian rule than protecting personal liberty and constituency buys into it all hook, line, and sinker. Whatever the party leaders says they'll support. Doesn't matter which side of the aisle - the result is the same. This conversation has focused a lot on tariffs and due process but there's even WAY more than that going on to support "the west in decline" narrative. I'm not really sure what people want democracy to look like anymore.

 

[Pegasus]

Did I hear correct that Ford is no longer going to make cars in the US?

 

[CUSP82]

Incorrect; where did you hear that?

 

[CUSP82]

Hmm difficult to know what Ccb means when he says long term but mentions revist in 1 year .

I have already crystal balled recession and double digit inflation within that time period . I can add there is a risk of double digit unemployment .

So I don't regard that as fine .

Goldman Sachs predicts 2.4 % growth next quarter

 

[CUSP82]

A positive for the West is Uke's are actively fighting for a democratic future .

Without elections; how does that work? Oh they can't have elections because of the war. Funny we had elections during the civil war but who cares

 

[Johnny D]

Goldman Sachs predicts 2.4 % growth next quarter

Well, that was a few days ago and their tune has changed slightly since the US-UK tariff deal. Their chief economist is giving the likelihood of a US recession a 45% probability now. I'd expect their forecast will change once again. And, of course, you can't just take what one person or institution says as the only source of truth. MANY economists and institutions have far gloomier predictions. We each have to do our own research and reading and understand why they're saying what they're saying. Don't just read the headlines. That approach is pure confirmation bias on full display.

The recent US-UK tariff deal is indicative of bad times ahead, as I see it. Not only does the US have a trade surplus with the UK (in Trump's misunderstanding of global trade, that means that we've been the ones ripping them off), but they're our strong ally and international partner. Yet we're sticking a 10% tariff on goods, which means that 10% is the best it's gonna get for anyone. The price of virtually everything will increase as a result. And the revenue from our own exports will go down as a result. That deal showed everyone the truth of it all and it's never about free trade with Trump. He's truly on board with "tariffs are always good" and I'm not sure anyone will convince him otherwise.

And, once more... Two seemingly contradictory things can be true at the same time without it being a contradiction. It's ok to say that you like Trump and most of what he stands for, while also saying that he has no idea what he's doing when it comes to global trade. He's proven to be economically illiterate, at least in this regard.

 

[CUSP82]

Economically illiterate? Somehow not only do I not see that but Bessent, Lutkin and Hasset seem pretty sharp to me. I still remember Paul Klugman, Nobel winning economist who said in 2016 if Trump won the market would crash so economist predicting gloom is taken with a grain of salt. Tell me how has your life been affected by the illiterate?

 

[Johnny D]

Economically illiterate?

Yes. It's hard to find a better example than insisting that a disparity in trade between two countries is indicative of someone being "ripped off". Insisting that the exporter will pay the tariff, rather than the consumer, is another. He's shown a complete inability to make sense of global trade implications and the health of the US market as a result. Yes, economically illiterate.

Somehow not only do I not see that but Bessent, Lutkin and Hasset seem pretty sharp to me.

They may be sharp but they also believe they can direct better market outcomes than a free market can. We typically call that socialism, btw.

I still remember Paul Klugman, Nobel winning economist who said in 2016 if Trump won the market would crash so economist predicting gloom is taken with a grain of salt.

Agreed. Which is why I say do your own research and reading. Don't just hitch your wagon to the party line, which is exactly what people are doing. Mostly because they don't want to believe that the party they support might be wrong about something.

Tell me how has your life been affected by the illiterate?

Virtually all of our clients right now have stopped spending. My business and many others are already seeing the effects. Clients have money to spend and, in fact, they need to spend - they can't just keep cash in the bank - but they won't because it's not penciling out and they don't know what's around the corner.

And we're all about to be affected by it. Prices will go up and some already are. Businesses will have to make cuts and unemployment will go up. The data is there an there isn't data right now to support optimistic predictions. Don't just parrot what "the party" says will happen. Look at the data. Look at history.

 

[Pegasus]

Well I have long predicted a recession so we shall see who is right .

 

[BigO]

I am having a record breaking year this year and not by a little. Last year was the best year we ever had and this year we are going to smash those numbers.

I like how things are going

 

[Johnny D]

Good to hear, BigO!

Just had a board meeting and one of our members said that this is killing his business and others in his industry.

Some may benefit - except that as consumers they’ll still feel the price increase pain - but on the net, most will be hurt. And then when recession gets really bad, everyone suffers.

 

[not2big]

My investment account is still down 15%., My favorite breakfast restauraunt is still charging a $1 extra for egg dishes, and the price of rice and Chinese condiments have increased significantly. Thanks to Donnie Two Dolls, the price of Barbie Dolls for my grand daughters have gone up. Instead of leasing a new car when my lease is up later this year, I am thinking seriously about how to buyout my leased Subaru instead of leasing a new one.

 

[Pegasus]

Glad you are going well O no doubt you do good work . However I still suggest you maintain good lquidity .

 

[Johnny D]

I think I've mentioned him before but if you're looking for a good source of economic analysis, I really like John Mauldin: https://www.mauldineconomics.com/frontlinethoughts/tension-in-the-sandpile
He's a decades-long Republican, though most recently registered Independent (I find his POV still remains mostly very conservative), but also not hesitant to call BS when he sees it. He gives a lot of good stuff to think about.

And if you don't have time for deep research abd only want the most accurate headlines (not my preferred method but not everyone wants to dive deep on everything), Oxford Economics has a very good track record: https://www.oxfordeconomics.com/trade/

I like what Mauldin says about economic forecasting: "Weather forecasters tell us what kind of weather we should expect. They can be wrong, but their short-term outlooks are generally reliable. The old joke that economists exist to make weathermen look good is funny because it has a ring of ironic truth." "I’ve said for a long time forecasts can be useful even when they’re wrong. Their value is not so much in the accuracy but in spurring us to consider the possibilities."

 

[Pegasus]

Just had a thought . The Anglo sphere is most affected . So US and Canada particularly , Uk has worries over brexit and recent stuff doesn't help . Aussie is going along fine so far .

 

[akaTrex]

As a percentage, undocumented immigrants are less likely to commit serious crimes than citizens. Undocumented immigrants help improve our economy - make up 25% of farm workers; 19% of maintenance and housekeeping services; 17% of construction workers; and 12% of food workers. In addition, they paid in excess of $10 billion in income taxes. $10 billion in property taxes, and $8 billion in sales taxes in addition to paying into Social Security without ever receiving benefits.

Illegal immigrants cost the state of California 3.5 billion dollars for Medical alone!

 

[akaTrex]

President Trump takes on 'Big Pharma' by signing an executive order to lower drug prices.
The U.S. "will no longer tolerate profiteering and price gouging from Big Pharma" as he signed an executive order implementing what his administration is calling "most favored nations drug pricing."

 

[Johnny D]

Illegal immigrants cost the state of California 3.5 billion dollars for Medical alone!

So do the math. Deduct that cost (and it's actually probably even higher than that) from the economic gain that you conveniently dismissed and the number is positive. By a very wide margin. So...sure...you can reduce the expense of healthcare for undocumented immigrants and, at the same time, give up the, literally, hundreds of billions of dollars they contribute to the economy.

President Trump takes on 'Big Pharma' by signing an executive order to lower drug prices.
The U.S. "will no longer tolerate profiteering and price gouging from Big Pharma" as he signed an executive order implementing what his administration is calling "most favored nations drug pricing."

I remember the days when Republicans called the Democrats socialists. Now both parties embrace it!

 

[akaTrex]

Today from CNN: https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/us-china-tariffs-trade-talks-trump-05-12-25

Trade war breakthrough: The US and China agreed to drastically roll back tariffs on each other’s goods for an initial 90 days, de-escalating a punishing trade war and buoying global markets. By Wednesday, the US will temporarily lower its overall tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%, while China will cut its levies on American imports from 125% to 10%. US stocks surged after a thaw in trade tensions with Beijing was brokered!