Is anyone else worried? (Covid Vaccine)

[Fizzby2233]

Can't argue with that logic.
BTW... I'm appreciating your more cogent and thoughtful responses of late.
(Though I still want to see your data to support the assertion that the pandemic will continue unless 75% of the population is vaccinated. Just sayin...)

Thanks Johnny. I have enjoyed our conversation. In most of the article I posted here the thought was 60 to 70 percent to get to herd immunity. The 75 percent (even higher by some) has been quoted in discussions with various epidimologist the are expert in their fields. I think the wide difference in numbers is reflecting the fact that this Inca novel virus and we are not sure how thing will play out. The scientic and medical community is united in the hope that the virus continues to mutate to a far less deadly virus. The fact that it has mutated to a more transmittable strain, which will soon become the dominant strain, may be an indication that evolution is taking this to more transmittable and maybe at some point less deadly. We look to past viruses and how they evolved. Most move in the less deadly direction because if you kill the host too fast transmission suffers. So the ideal scenario for an efficient virus is high tramission with low mortality which assure the virus can continue. Cheers.

 

[Fizzby2233]

Here is an article from the journal of internal medicine quoting 60 to 80 percent to achieve herd immunity. People in the scientific and medical community understand the details and immplecation of information like this. It is hard to armchair quarterback when a person is not in the game. Best way to get in the game is to start on a course of organic chemistry biology and epidemiological studies.
http://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/2773575

 

[Johnny D]

However...
Vaccination isn’t the sole means of immunity
and
The pandemic is largely behind us, let alone not continuing
Those are the 2 points of my disagreement with your assertion.

 

[Johnny D]

[h=1]Study highlights ‘moralisation’ of COVID response and restrictions[/h][FONT=&quot]A collaborative study led by the University of Otago has shown that COVID-19 containment and elimination efforts have become moralised. As a result, people are more likely to accept collateral damage from these efforts, such as social shaming, lost lives and illnesses, and police abuse of power. This moralisation was so strong that people reacted negatively even when COVID-19 restrictions were merely questioned.
[/FONT]https://www.otago.ac.nz/news/news/releases/otago758988.html[FONT=&quot]

[/FONT]

 

[Pegasus]

The % of the population that have had covid is small nowhere near 60%. Without vaccine covid would have a long way to run yet .

 

[Johnny D]

Except that it's on the decline. The data shows a sharp decline in mortality rates and, as shown in previous analysis I linked to, is following a curve typical of seasonal viruses.

Here's the latest out of Ireland from Ivor Cummins - I use his because he's been pretty thourough with his analysis - showing that 2020 mortality isn't proving to be as frightening as predicted and that we can stop characterizing this as "pandemic" now: https://youtu.be/SdKkZLqhmDM?t=460

If anyone knows similar data scientists in the US or anywhere else providing the kind of consistent analysis that Ivor Cummins is, I'd like to see that , too. Similarly, if anyone knows of a data scientist parsing the data as he is but coming up with contradictory conclusions, please share.

 

[Fizzby2233]

Except that it's on the decline. The data shows a sharp decline in mortality rates and, as shown in previous analysis I linked to, is following a curve typical of seasonal viruses.

Here's the latest out of Ireland from Ivor Cummins - I use his because he's been pretty thourough with his analysis - showing that 2020 mortality isn't proving to be as frightening as predicted and that we can stop characterizing this as "pandemic" now: https://youtu.be/SdKkZLqhmDM?t=460

If anyone knows similar data scientists in the US or anywhere else providing the kind of consistent analysis that Ivor Cummins is, I'd like to see that , too. Similarly, if anyone knows of a data scientist parsing the data as he is but coming up with contradictory conclusions, please share.

The assertion that it is on the decline contradicts what is actually happening in the world this time. We definitely differ there. I do agree that moralizing public health policy is not the best approach. I am guilt of that myself at time and then I know what I am trying to communicate suffers. I am always open to a new way. But with the new variant which is highly transmissible it is a race to vaccine so that as it burns through the population on its way to creating herd immunity it does burn through people we love. Cheers buddy.

 

[not2big]

FiveThirtyEight is a great source for current Covid 19 information, including information on various forecasting projection models, history by state, and information on prior pandemics:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/covid-forecasts/

 

[Johnny D]

FiveThirtyEight is a great source for current Covid 19 information, including information on various forecasting projection models, history by state, and information on prior pandemics:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/covid-forecasts/

I'm skeptical that a Disney/ABC publication wouldn't tow the narrative, but I'll keep an eye on it. Thanks

 

[Fizzby2233]

FiveThirtyEight is a great source for current Covid 19 information, including information on various forecasting projection models, history by state, and information on prior pandemics:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/covid-forecasts/

Thank you for the posting. I wonder if these are factoring in the more highly contagious variant. Every day in California when they release the numbers like 38000 new cases there is the reminder that about 12 percent of those daily new cases will require hospitalization in the next 2 weeks. Of that 12 percent 10 percent will end in ICU. That is what has already been shown to be the case over the last 9 months of watching the data.

 

[not2big]

I'm skeptical that a Disney/ABC publication wouldn't tow the narrative, but I'll keep an eye on it. Thanks

So you feel the mouse is capable of pulling the wool over our eyes?

 

[BigO]

So you feel the mouse is capable of pulling the wool over our eyes?

I'd like to go on record and say nobody ends up winning against the mouse, he is a clever bastard

 

[Pegasus]

The mortality is less because the medical have learned more about how to treat it not because there is less covid .

 

[Fizzby2233]

Spot on. They now know to give anti inflammatory drug to help prevent cytokine storm. Anti clotting medications for the trombolitic component and they try to use proning as much as possible instead of ventilators for oxygen uptake. Still many of these interventions do not work on everyone but they have saved many since they started using them. Then there are the experimental drug which can be request through compassionate use request.

 

[Fizzby2233]

Pfzier issued a statement that they took no Federal money for the research and development of the vaccine. They just had standing orders. The credit for the vaccines lay squarely with the scientific and medical community as do the advances in treatments. After January 20th, not withstanding the current sedition efforts, the Federal government will be in step with the scientific community. The vaccine distribution will be taken out of the hands of the states and become a federal program. You just have to look at Florida and Tennessee to see what a cluster f this has been. Percapita we are behind Israel for giving vaccines. We have more deaths in this country than India.The most in the world. Hmmm does that speak to a job well done or gross mismanagement. Just something to think about. Cheers.

 

[Johnny D]

After January 20th, not withstanding the current sedition efforts...

At the risk of going way off topic, I just want to know whether you called Boxer's actions in 2004 seditious and treasonous. Pelosi referred to it as "Democracy in action" at the time. But this time it borders on treason and sedition?? Why is that and how consistent were you then?

 

[Johnny D]

Yes, mortality lowers as we learn how to prevent deaths. It also lowers as the most vulnerable die early on and as more people are exposed. And it lowers seasonally as all of them do and have done throughout history. And we're seeing all of that now. So, again, tell me why the pandemic will continue unless 75% of the population is vaccinated.

 

[Fizzby2233]

At the risk of going way off topic, I just want to know whether you called Boxer's actions in 2004 seditious and treasonous. Pelosi referred to it as "Democracy in action" at the time. But this time it borders on treason and sedition?? Why is that and how consistent were you then?

After every state certified their results almost 50 court cases have failed the supreme court won't touch it the justice department won't touch it. I am not going to try to explain why this whole move is a threat to democracy. The sedition act is clear. On the 75 percent I have shared posts that show a range from 60 to 80 percent. At this point it is like the line from blazing saddles where the preacher says. "Lord are we getting somewhere or are we just jerking off" I get you believe what you believe. America has many realities that people cleave to. At this point this is kicking a dead horse. Not much fun. Some one advised me to enjoy my time on the site. Posting information here is fun a little back and forth is fun. A circle jerk well not so much fun. Cheers.

 

[Johnny D]

After every state certified their results almost 50 court cases have failed the supreme court won't touch it the justice department won't touch it. I am not going to try to explain why this whole move is a threat to democracy. The sedition act is clear. On the 75 percent I have shared posts that show a range from 60 to 80 percent. At this point it is like the line from blazing saddles where the preacher says. "Lord are we getting somewhere or are we just jerking off" I get you believe what you believe. America has many realities that people cleave to. At this point this is kicking a dead horse. Not much fun. Some one advised me to enjoy my time on the site. Posting information here is fun a little back and forth is fun. A circle jerk well not so much fun. Cheers.

You misunderstand me. I do not believe what you seem to think I believe. What I'm asking you is whether you thought that Boxer's actions in 2004 were also bordering on sedition and treason or was it, as Pelosi described it, democracy in action?

Do not mistake my concerns about our response to SARS-CoV-2 as any kind of political alignment. Do not mistake my questioning of your "sedition" statement as support for Trump or belief there was election fraud.

 

[Fizzby2233]

You misunderstand me. I do not believe what you seem to think I believe. What I'm asking you is whether you thought that Boxer's actions in 2004 were also bordering on sedition and treason or was it, as Pelosi described it, democracy in action?

Do not mistake my concerns about our response to SARS-CoV-2 as any kind of political alignment. Do not mistake my questioning of your "sedition" statement as support for Trump or belief there was election fraud.

Johnny I appreciate your post. I thank you for the invitation to dance to the Pelosi to which I decline. But I will say like any politician from any party she is a mixed bag a good and bad. Over all not my favorite. There were more deaths from covid in December than in the two prior months and with 85000000 traveling over the holidays January should be worse. For those who have ears to hear, the fat lady has not sung on the pandemic yet.