I think you're on shaky ground, but I do agree with you. It is true that industrial output increases dramatically during global wars, which puts more money into the middle class. A net positive outcome. But you're right, eventually the money borrowed to fund the industrial surge must be paid back at a later date, possibly causing recession.
Hey, bud. How's it going? I am not sure why I am on shaky ground. Could you explain please. I mean, in the event of a global war we are going to need ammunition that cannot be reused. That ammunition is only going to destroy things; at the very least destroy itself. After it is made and sold, it is worth nothing. The bomb maker doesn't benefit anyone else. Whereas, say, a car maker benefits lots of people (car insurance, fuel, oil, filters, lights, washer blades, tires, radios, speakers, more fuel, convenient stores, athletic events--bus rides--etc.). When a bomb finally does go off someone is going to need death insurance (widow), health insurance, and pension, luckily the good ole tax payer will be there to take the hit though. Also, all of those soldiers that we send off to war will need retraining when they get back which costs businesses lots of money; unless they are going to carry an M-16 for the new Military State formerly known as the USA. War does not lead to a economic "boom" by itself. Maybe it seems that way because the USA can't stay out of wars. Fact: the USA spends 2 Billion a week on Afghanistan alone, how is that going for the USA? The US could sure use that money at home right about now.
This is an important fact, for now. Currently the Chinese leadership is composed of members from the technical classes (engineers, etc) who lead the country, as you would expect, quite conservatively. They will NOT go to war with the U.S. However, there will come a day when that leadership will succumb to the power-hungry, who may be more nationalistic, more aggressive. Already many in China see it's rise as simply a return to where China should be (historically, up until the European industrial revolution, China had been the single largest economy in the world for many centuries). The future leaders of China may decide, at some point, that putting the U.S. in it's place will be the best course of action.
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