In April, the Association of American Medical Colleges released a report suggestive of an oncoming physician shortfall in the United States in The Complexities of Physician Supply and Demand: Projections from 2017 to 2032. According to data from the study, the U.S. could face a shortage of nearly 122,000 physicians by 2031, as the demand for doctors increases faster than supply. Projected shortfall estimates range from 47,000 to 122,000 physicians however, that number could be even higher.
The total projected shortage persists under multiple studied scenarios including: a moderate increase in the use of advanced practice nurses (APRNs) and physician assistants (Pas), greater use of alternate settings such as retail clinics, and delayed physician retirement. Thus, the magnitude of the forecasted shortage will necessitate more than a single solution. Addressing the issue will require a multifaceted approach focused on innovation in healthcare delivery methods, optimal use of technology, efficient use of all healthcare professionals, and increased federal funding.
Seeing as physician training can last up to a decade, the problem should be addressed as soon as possible. Currently, the AAMC and 70 healthcare stakeholders are backing legislation that would add 15,000 Medicare-supported residency positions to the market between 2021 and 2025. In the latest press release, AAMC President and CEO, Dr. Darrell G. Kirch stresses the need for immediate action: “Because it takes seven to 15 years to train a doctor, we urge Congress to remove the freeze on federal funding for residency training that has been in place for over two decades without delay.”
The study is an update to last year’s report, incorporating the latest data evidence to present the most accurate estimates and solutions based on new healthcare modeling. As new data becomes available, the AAMC pledges to update the study annually and ensure the most precise projections are being addressed.
No comment yet, add your voice below!